Market Commentary 10 Dec 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

After a stellar nonfarm figure was announced last Friday indices rallied to around 1%. Employment increased by 266,000 and jobless rate fell to 3.5% but a few points will be from 40K GM workers who are back at work after their long strike. On the trade front, China started to exempt some agricultural products from tariffs which prove positive to the market.

This positive employment data will bolster the Fed’s decision to hold steady on this week’s FOMC meeting. And the ECB will probably pause during rate announcement this week. UK elections are also scheduled the 12th of December which might add volatility to the market.

S&P Chart

 

DOW -        up 20.1 %  YTD

S&P –          up 25.5 %   YTD

NASDAQ –  up  30.5 % YTD

 

HEADS UP

  • CNY: New Yuan Loans (NOV)
  • CNY: Consumer Price Index (NOV)
  • GBP: Monthly GDP (OCT)
  • EUR: Euro-Zone ZEW Survey
  • GBP: UK General Election
  • USD: Consumer Price Index (YOY)
  • USD: FOMC Rate Decision
  • EUR: ECB Deposit Facility Rate
  • EUR: ECB Rate Decision
  • USD: Retail Sales Advance (NOV)

 

DAILY FEEDS

GOLD:

Gold has been forming this flag pattern since the middle of this year. Based on the chart below, it has to break above the $1500 mark for this to create a bullish formation. But it breaks down, we might even see gold below the $1400 level.

Gold Chart

EUR:

Sellers are still dictating the path of the Euro after an exhaustion rally last week. The trading band is still tilting downwards, and any rally was an opportunity to sell. And strong US employment data did not help the Euro. ECB will have the rate decision this week.

YEN:

Like Gold and Euro, Japanese Yen fell to the 108.50 support due to strong US jobs number. USDJPY is mostly risk-sensitive and “risk-on “is back in favour last Friday supporting the US dollar versus most currencies.

AUD:

The AUD continues to consolidate near 0.6850 level while waiting for any outcome of US-China trade deal hoping that they are close to signing a “phase one” deal.

Author: Ricardo Garrido-Senior Account Advisor of RockGlobal

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