Market Commentary 26 Nov 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

After Friday’s lacklustre trading session which ended marginally higher with statements both from President Trump and Mr Xi stating that the talks are progressing nicely, but Trump added that the talks should favour the US since they are starting from a lower base. But so far nothing definite yet and can still go either way. But while things are quiet, VIX or Volatility Index drops while the US stock market creeps upwards.

University of Michigan sentiment also had an upward revision which was supportive for investors on Friday.

DIA ETF Chart

DOW - up 17.2 % YTD

S&P - up 22.3 %   YTD

NASDAQ - up 26.4 % YTD

HEADS UP

• USD: Fed Powell speaks in Rhode Island
• AUD: RBA Lowe gives a speech in Sydney
• USD: Advance Goods Trade Balance
• USD: Consumer Confidence (NOV)
• NZD: RBNZ News Conference on FSR
• USD: Durable Goods (OCT)
• USD: Gross Domestic Product (3Q)
• USD: PCE Core (OCT)
• EUR: German Consumer Price Index
• EUR: German Unemployment Rate (NOV)
• EUR: Euro-Zone CPI (NOV)
• CNY: Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

DAILY FEEDS

GOLD:

With rising Treasury yields in the US pushing up the US currency at the expense of Gold/USD, risk-on sentiment will prevail over the next few days. We might even see Gold back at the 1450 support while we see volatility easing off as well. A trade deal between China and the US will also dampen demand for this yellow metal.

EUR:

Euro has been creeping upward over the last few days and targeting the next resistance at 1.1165. There is still a lot of selling pressure on this currency.

YEN:

USDJPY has only had a 60-pip range over the last 5 days of trading. With more positive news on the “phase-one” trade deal between the US and China, USD will continue to rally towards the 110-111 range.

AUD:

With the RBA Minutes released last week wherein the Board revealed that rates are already low enough and additional cuts will start having an effect on other policy options of the bank. RBA seems to be leaning on a dovish path for now.

BITCOIN:

Bitcoin plunged last week after Chinese Central Bank launched another crackdown on cryptocurrencies and warning investors not to confuse cryptos to blockchain technology. Bitcoin touched $6,800 before trimming losses.

Bitcoin Chart